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Video Q&A ViewAttendees 4

Plant-Insect Ecosystems

10-Minute Paper

P-IE: Ecology On-Demand Presentations

How to count bugs: A universal method to estimate most probable absolute population density and its statistical bounds from a single trap catch

On-Demand
On-Demand

    Presenting Author(s)

  • Ksenia S. Onufrieva

    Research Scientist
    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
    Blacksburg, Virginia

    • Co-Author(s)

  • AO

    Alexey V. Onufriev

    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
    Blacksburg, Virginia

Insect control, conservation and research programs rely on trap catches to assess population densities and make decisions, however, the relationship between trap catches and actual absolute population density is not fully understood, particularly when the trap catch is small, including zero.

Here we report a universal predictive relationship for a probability of catching an insect in a single trap:
spTfer(r) = spTfer(0)/(1+(r/D50)2),

where spTfer(0) is the probability of catching an insect in the immediate proximity to the trap and D50 is the distance from a baited trap at which the probability to catch an insect drops to 50% of the probability to catch an insect located in the immediate proximity to the trap (spTfer(0)).  We tested the generality of this equation using published pheromone and light trapping data collected on insects from 5 different orders. For all datasets the equation faithfully describes the relationship between location of an insect and probability to catch it. Based on the general relationship, we have developed a method of estimating upper and lower bounds on absolute population density from a single trap catch.

Ability to derive absolute population densities from single trap catches will improve our understanding of insect population dynamics and allow for more effective management and conservation programs.