Human wellbeing impacts of pollinator decline

Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator
strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what what risks pollinator decline generates for society in different parts of the world. A standard answer to the question of why pollinator decline is a problem invokes the reliance of food production on pollination, due to dependence in 75% of our major food crops. However, this dependence doesn't necessarily translate into impacts on human livelihoods and wellbeing, because farmers adapt to avoid dependence when their production is threatened. Also, it ignores the wide range of other values humans gain from pollinators, beyond food production. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we quantified the relative importance of ten risks to human well-being associated with pollinator decline, in six global regions, and reveal regional differences. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.