Insights from habitat suitability modelling for the conservation of the Iberian endemic ant-like flies (Diptera: Hybotidae)

The ant-like flies comprise ten Iberian endemic species of flightless Tachydromia, yet poorly  known regarding  their distribution and ecological requirements. Habitat suitability, trough species distribution models, was unveiled to provide guidelines for conservation and future studies. An ensemble modelling approach was employed with the combination of ten different modelling techniques. Presence only data was partitioned into six sets of data concerning: i) merged distribution of all species, ii) most phylogenetically related cluster of species, iii) Tachydromia lusitanica), iv) Tachydromia ebejeri v)Tachydromia iberica , and vi) Tachydromia semiaptera. The results revealed that the highest effects on the ant-like flies’ habitat suitability and predicted distributions are mostly associated with climate variables followed by forest type and its structure, tracing well defined biogeographic gradients. Habitat suitability segregates two groups of species:T. lusitanica and T. ebejeri are better adapted to mild temperatures and environments with high humidity, which connects their potential distribution with the Temperate-Eurosiberian life zone. T. semiaptera and T. iberica are adapted to progressively drier and hotter central and southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula, being connected with transitional Temperate to Submediterranean areas. Marescent and deciduous oak species are very effective indicators of their presence.  Southern marcescent forests emerge as ecological “islands” with particular interest for conservation and future prospections. Likely threats are linked to climate change and habitat destruction. The conservation of the ant-like flies is highly dependent and connected to the health of the native forests they inhabit.