D3045: Phenology modeling of cotton fleahopper nymph emergence from woolly croton

Insect vectors, particularly hemipterans, drive the spread of many plant viruses. The management of vector-driven plant diseases relies heavily on monitoring and timely use of insecticides, making study of vector phenology important to epidemiological studies and intervention. Phenology of many insects can be predicted based on accumulated heat; however, other contributing factors such as moisture and stage of host plant are not well-integrated into the models. The cotton fleahopper (CFH; Pseudatomoscelis seriatus Reuter), an economically relevant pest of cotton in Texas, overwinters as eggs primarily in woolly croton. Eggs exit diapause in spring, associated with seasonal warming and rainfall, but related mechanisms affecting nymph emergence timing are not precisely understood. We aimed to study these mechanisms in the CFH system, using it as a model for hemipterans in general and increasing phenology models’ ability to account for moisture variability in mechanistically interpretable ways. Using data generated through field collection of woolly croton during winter and spring, we modeled cumulative proportional nymph emergence as a function of accumulated degree-days from senesced croton collected across the emergence period of nymphs. We show that CFH nymph emergence patterns change with administration of different water treatments.