Medical, Urban, and Veterinary Entomology
10-Minute Paper
James C. Burtis
Research Biologist
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Erik Foster, BCE
Medical Entomologist
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Amy Fleshman
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Sarah Maes
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Kiersten Kugeler
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Amy Schwartz
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Rebecca Eisen
Research Biologist
US CDC
Fort Collins, Colorado
Lyme disease, caused primarily by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in the United States The geographic areas where human illness occurs and where the primary vector, Ixodes scapularis, is established are both expanding. Field surveillance efforts for ticks and their associated pathogens has increased in recent years. The resulting information on the distribution, density, and associated infection prevalence of ticks and their pathogens is intended to provide current and accurate information regarding geographic risk for human exposure to ticks and tickborne pathogens. We used tick distribution and B. burgdorferi infection data from 2696 counties in the eastern US reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through ArboNET, combined with historical data, to develop ensemble models. We identified counties with suitable habitat for risk of exposure to host-seeking B. burgdorferi s.s.-infected I. scapularis nymphs. Predictions from these models were compared with the distribution of Lyme disease cases reported to CDC. Environmental factors affecting predictions for counties with higher vs. lower acarological risk, comparisons of model outcomes with epidemiological data, and how the models can be used to identify counties where enhanced tick surveillance might be justified will be discussed.