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Video Q&A ViewAttendees 1

Plant-Insect Ecosystems

Member Symposium

Adapting, Advancing, and Transforming Forest Entomology for Climate Change On-Demand Presentations

A temperature-driven cohort-based rate-summation model for forecasting population dynamics of emerald ash borer and its natural enemies under changing climates

On-Demand
On-Demand
Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennisi Fairmare (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is a destructive invasive pest of ash trees that now occurs throughout much of the eastern U.S. and Canada.  Here we present on a temperature-driven cohort-based rate-summation model for forecasting emerald ash borer phenology for different climate scenarios.  The model uses a combination of non-linear development rate functions and cumulative probability functions to simulate development of emerald ash borer from J-larva to adult, the oviposition period, and from egg through all larval stages for each year.  Model simulations predict that the emerald ash borer life cycle transitions from primarily univoltine to primarily semivoltine when moving from south to north.   Introduced EAB larval parasitoids will be less likely to establish and persist in regions where the populations are univoltine due to the limited seasonal availability of suitable stages of EAB larvae.  The model also predicts that probability of having a EAB univoltine life cycle will expand northward as temperatures warm due to climate change.  This model will be useful tool for simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of EAB and its natural enemies.