Globalization of invasive agricultural moth assemblages: Fulfilling their climate destiny?

The are many moths that are pests of agriculture, and are highly invasive.  They are typically polyphagous, highly mobile and adept at hitchhiking between continents associated with the movement of goods and passengers.  A critical tool for alerting agricultural producers and biosecurity agencies to the threat posed by these pests are bioclimatic models.  We showcase a variety of bioclimatic models for four notorious moths at various stages of invasion, occupying their global climatic niches [tomato pinworm, Pthorimaea (Tuta) absoluta; corn earworm, Helicoverpa armigera;  diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella; and fall army worm, Spodoptera frugiperda].  We compare the performance of correlative species distribution models and CLIMEX models.  We also demonstrate how the CLIMEX models can reveal useful temporal risk information, comparing the growth index to phenological observations.