PICTUREE - Predicting Insect Contact and Transmission Using histoRical Entomological and Epidemiological data

The PICTUREE project is a decision support tool to help planners optimize provisioning and alignment of resources based on estimated risk for arthropod-transmitted pathogens. Current vector-borne disease practices are reactionary and retroactive for human health protection. PICTUREE provides a data-driven and adaptive tool to assess the risk of vector-borne health threats. The decision support platform uses mathematical models to classify landscapes into three levels of dengue current risk –high, medium, and low for any location in the world. The platform also forecasts active dengue outbreaks as increasing, constant, or decreasing when incidence data for the selected location or surrounding areas is provided. The PICTUREE tool includes a complete and constantly updated database with weather, climate, demographic, and dengue incidence data. Mosquito abundance is also estimated using a population model and displayed with the map tool as R₀ (the reproductive number). To forecast outbreaks, a machine learning and a Kalman filter approach are used. This tool and the models can be generalized for other mosquito-borne infectious diseases.