Potential distribution of an invasive termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, in the changing climate and growing human population

Reticulitermes flavipes, a subterranean termite species native to the US, has now spread to various parts of the world. As one of the most devastating invasive species, R. flavipes causes approximately $2 billion in damage annually. Previously, studies have suggested that both changing climate and growing human population can drive the spread of local R. flavipes populations. It is therefore urgent to know, on a larger global scale, how R. flavipes distribution has been shaped by both climate and human activities, and how they will be impacted in the future. In this study, we Identified important climatic and anthropogenic factors as potential predictors for R. flavipes distribution, generated an up-to-date global distribution map, and forecasted the potential distribution of R. flavipes in 50 years. Our results show that both climatic and anthropogenic factors are crucial to predicting potential distribution of R. flavipes. The top two influential factors are precipitation seasonality and human population density. R. flavipes prefers lower precipitation and temperature, as well as higher human population density. In addition, human populated regions and deciduous forests are mostly favored. Current distribution map shows that the potential distribution has expanded far beyond recorded locations. The projections of future distribution, representative of three different time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), indicate that the range expansion of R. flavipes will continue for the next 50 years, especially in Europe. These results call for ongoing antecedent establishment of strategies to prevent possible invasion of R. flavipes and its following damage.