D3034: Effects of forest connectivity and local wind direction on the synchrony of Lymantria dispar

The drivers of how and why populations experience synchrony in abundance, even across long distances and disconnected habitat, has been a major area of scientific exploration. Here, we consider two new hypotheses as they relate to the gypsy moth in its North American range: (1) connectivity of forest influences the spatial synchrony of populations and (2) directionality in synchrony is correlated with local wind direction. We address the first hypothesis using generalized least squares analysis of the non-centered spatial association in defoliation with different measurements of forest connectivity. We find that connectivity based on total percent canopy cover has a significant correlation with the synchrony of gypsy moths. Future analyses will reveal how local wind direction further influences gypsy moth synchrony and the anisotropy of synchrony.