Simulated vectorial capacity can be altered by resistance genes or exposure to insecticides or repellents

Mosquito populations are frequently exposed to insecticides, generating resistance. The effects of these resistance genes are not well known, and exposure may further modify mosquito traits. Altered mosquito traits can then affect vectorial capacity, changing the relative risk of virus transmission posed by different populations. Vectorial capacity includes 4 mosquito traits (vector to host ratio, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and daily survival) that may be affected by resistance genes or chemical exposure. To address how resistance genes and exposure could affect relative risk, we modeled changes in vectorial capacity, allowing traits to be functions of individual resistance and exposure. Populations have normally distributed individual resistance levels and exposure doses, and traits have sigmoidal increasing or decreasing relationships with resistance. Exposure causes acute mortality, then subsequent modification of the resistance-derived trait. Exposure is detrimental to the mosquito but beneficial to virus transmission. Individual vectorial capacity is calculated then summed across a population exposed to a particular chemical and dose. Populations and exposures are then compared to assess relative risk. A stratified random sensitivity analysis on the parameters governing the trait-resistance and trait-exposure relationships will be used to identify traits and parameters most affecting changes in vectorial capacity. Parameters derived from companion lab studies will be used in the model to compare actual populations to hypothetical ones. Model results will improve understanding of how resistance affects the relative risk posed by a mosquito population, which traits are most influential, and identify conditions where relative risk may change with exposure.